Up in the air

This week, in The Incline...

• Nomination day approacheth

• By-by-by election drama

• Case of the missing mayoral candidate

• The state of the races across the city

62.5% of the working day

When the doors to City Hall open tomorrow at 8:30 AM, the final countdown will begin. From that moment on, there will be 10.625 business days left for aspiring candidates to file nomination papers to run in the 2026 Hamilton municipal election.

Why 10.625, you ask? Well, there’s a weird quirk in the Municipal Elections Act that says the final day of the nomination period is actually the official “Nomination Day”. On Nomination Day, election paperwork will only be accepted by the municipality from 9:00 AM to 2:00 PM. So despite Hamilton City Hall being open Monday to Friday from 8:30 AM to 4:30 PM for regular business, nomination papers will only be accepted for 62.5% of the working day on Friday, August 21 thanks to provincial law.

Ontario!

As of the morning of Thursday, August 6, there are 8 candidates for mayor, 55 for council, and 26 for trustee across the four boards that offer publicly-funded education in Hamilton.

But a lot is still up in the air. The eerie quiet of the nomination period means that many voters have more questions than there are candidates.

We are in a situation best summed up by the iconic quote from Donald Rumsfeld who, while bumbling through a press conference about the complete lack of any proof indicating Iraq had weapons of mass destruction a year before the United States invaded, told reporters:

“…as we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns…the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”

So let’s go through our knowns, unknowns, and unknown unknowns. And hopefully not unknowingly fall into semantic satiation (the thing that happens when you repeat a word so many times it temporarily loses all meaning) in the process. Bet you didn’t know that’s what it was called. Kind of like an unknown unknown, eh?

Eastbound and down

One major “known” disruption to this fall’s municipal election comes in the form of an ill-timed provincial by-election. Or beautifully-timed, if your name is “Doug”. Or maybe “Marit”.

***

On July 17, Ontario’s Minister of Sport and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek MPP, Neil Lumsden, announced he was stepping down from politics as of two days ago. While there had been rumours of Lumsden’s desire to leave the legislature for a few months, few in the community (myself included) expected he would quit before the municipal elections this October.

Indeed, the running expectation was that he would wait until after the October 26 municipal vote and then announce his resignation to time his provincial by-election with the two others (in York-Simcoe to replace the retiring Caroline Mulroney and in Scarborough Southwest to replace Doly Begum, who opportunistically made her way to federal Parliament a while back) that need to be held before December 31, 2026.

But, instead, Lumsden stepped down very early, announcing in mid-July that his last day in the legislature would be August 4.

In retrospect, that’s understandable. Mainly because it makes the electoral calculus for Premier Doug Ford way better. Now, he can hold by-elections during the municipal election (the writs of election were issued yesterday and set voting day as September 3) and have a full legislature when it reconvenes the day after the municipal elections in October. Holding provincial by-elections at the same time as municipal elections means there will be ample confusion and disinterest from the public, allowing the Progressive Conservatives to more effectively pull out their die-hard supporters and make life miserable for local campaigners in the rebellious municipalities of Toronto, Hamilton, and York Region. Plus, the confusion this creates makes it easier for him to distract from his growing list of scandals and gives his candidates a fighting chance to win their races, even if the Premier’s mounting unpopularity would otherwise make things difficult.

Sure, some polls have the Ontario Liberals leading Ford’s PC’s by 5%, but the Ontario Liberals are in complete shambles and won’t have a leader until November 20. By calling the by-elections early, Ford cuts off an easy electoral opportunity for any of the four Liberal leadership candidates who do not have a seat in the legislature. Beyond that, the entire Liberal apparatus will be torn between municipal campaigns and leadership campaigns, making it harder to focus on the by-elections.

Ford once again proves that his success is thanks to a 50/50 mix of dumb luck and strategic manipulation of timelines (for more examples, please see the entirety of the Ford Family’s political history).

***

While the timing undoubtedly works well for Ford, the person this might be the best for is Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles.

Stiles has been looking for a big win since she ascended to the party’s leadership three years ago. With these by-elections, she finally has a shot to show she can take down Ford. Out of the three by-elections that will be held on September 3, two are looking good for the party; Scarborough Southwest is absolutely winnable for the ONDP, especially after the fracas that was the Ontario Liberal nomination race in the riding (that ultimately ended rebellious Beaches-East York MP Nate Erskine-Smith’s provincial leadership ambitions and, ultimately, his federal political career as well), and there’s a long NDP history in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.

If the ONDP is able to hold onto Scarborough Southwest and pick up Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Stiles will be riding high. Winning both seats means Stiles will style herself (I’m here all week, folks) as the person best able to take on Doug Ford. Considering slumping poll numbers for the Premier, we might find ourselves in a situation where the PCs cede Hamilton East-Stoney Creek Ford to the NDP, the knives will come out for Ford when the legislature resumes, he’ll be forced to step down, be replaced as PC leader, and the new Premier will call a provincial election some time in 2028. If Stiles can build on the momentum she generates from these by-elections and get in front of more Ontarians over the next 18 months, she might be able to ride a wave of discontent to victory.

But much of that depends on Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.

***

Of all the three provincial by-elections, the HESC one will be the most intense, if for no other reason than it is already a star-studded affair.

The Ontario Liberals were the first out of the gate, announcing their 2025 candidate, Heino Doessing, would again stand for the party. Politically-savvy Hamiltonians will know Doessing as a dutiful Liberal partisan and recognizable face in the community. His 2025 campaign grew the Liberal vote by an impressive 10.5 points on Jason Farr’s lacklustre performance from 2022. Much of that growth came at the expense of a deeply weakened ONDP in the east end.

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives tapped former school trustee and current Ward 10 councillor Jeff Beattie to be their candidate. It may be hard to remember, but Beattie was once a great hope for environmentalists and progressives in the city. He took on the establishment pro-development Ward 10 Councillor Maria Pearson, running in 2022 on a platform of supporting affordable and non-profit housing, expanding traffic calming, offering transit options in the ward, and promoting responsible development. Beattie quickly disappointed anyone who hoped he would represent a break from the ‘politics of old’ by aligning himself with council’s conservative block and reliably voting with the right-wing every chance he got. His nomination was a slight surprise, considering his council re-election campaign was full steam ahead, but a keen political player knows to strike when the iron is hot.

The Greens have once again nominated Pascale Marchand, a rising star in the Green movement both locally and across the province; Marchand was able to grow the Green Party’s share of the vote in HESC last year and has been rapidly building a Green movement in the east end, which is part of the reason why the party held their provincial convention in Hamilton this year. Marchand currently works in the Ward 4 office and, full disclosure, I’ve gotten to know her well over the past few years in our roles as city hall staffers. I share a kind of kinship with Marchand, given that our roles inside 71 Main West sometimes butt up against our other perspectives and ventures in the community - my inability to keep my opinions to myself and ever-fading political aspirations and Marchand’s passionate advocacy and far more tangible electoral efforts. Case in point: in an interview with the Spec, Marchand was questioned about Ward 4 Councillor Tammy Hwang’s vote against the interim control by-law for data centres, given Marchand’s and the Green Party’s stance in opposition to them. Marchand was characteristically upfront, saying: “I don’t know if I would have voted the same way…and [Hwang] knows that.”¹

sigh. I get that.

But it was the Ontario NDP that came out with the bombshell. On July 29, the party announced that 14-year veteran legislator, Monique Taylor, would carry the party’s banner in the by-election. Taylor served as MPP for Hamilton Mountain until 2025 when she didn’t re-offer provincially and, instead, ran as the NDP’s federal candidate in the April election. The dueling forces of Carneydemonium and Jagmeet Singh’s unpopularity derailed what should have been a strong campaign and Taylor ended up with the lowest vote total for the party on Hamilton Mountain in 25 years.

Taylor is a powerhouse of a candidate and represents the ONDP’s best chance to have an impact in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. While she’s very associated with the Mountain, the Tories would be wise to not fixate too much on her residency; Taylor was born and raised in the east end and, prior to the 2007 provincial NDP nomination drama in HESC, was the riding association president (her then-partner was one of the four candidates seeking the party’s nomination, requiring her to step down to avoid a conflict of interest). Taylor’s Mountain affiliation came when she managed former Councillor Scott Duvall’s election campaign in Ward 7 and went on to serve as his executive assistant.²  

Oh, and Lumsden lived in the west end while serving as Hamilton East-Stoney Creek MPP, so glass houses and all that.

***

This by-election will have a major impact on the municipal campaign.

First and foremost, it’ll be a major distraction for everyone involved. People from Kenilworth to Winona will be getting canvassed, called, and cajoled by trustee, councillor, mayoral, and MPP candidates. They’ll be heading to the polls on September 3 to elect an MPP and then again, 53 days later, to vote for a new municipal council and school board. That will impact the election in Wards 4, 5, and 10 in a pretty profound way.

In Ward 4, Hwang just lost one of her best assets to the provincial campaign, meaning an already tough race against Jason Farr just became even tougher. In Ward 10, Beattie’s short-notice exit means a whole host of new candidates will begin signing up and launching campaigns with just 80 days to fundraise, build a campaign team, door knock, prepare for debates, and make enough of a presence in the community to be considered a moderately serious contender. And while things are very quiet in Ward 5 at the moment, there will almost assuredly be an impact on Councillor Matt Francis’s race and long-term political ambitions.

Every campaign will now be dealing with the fact that voters are going to be tired of the constant badgering from provincial campaigns, making them less likely to engage, less likely to donate, less likely to volunteer, and, unfortunately, less likely to cast municipal ballots on October 26. That’s going to disrupt the local race immensely and take the wind out of the sails of some candidates who might have relied on sheer persistence and their partisan connections to get them over the finish line.

All that said, I feel like we should have expected all this, given that one of the Ford government’s lasting legacies has been the wholesale destruction of municipal institutions in this province.

Terms of en-mayor-ment

Beyond the impact of the provincial by-election, I think there’s one more major municipal electoral disruption we may need to consider. This one is a bit more of an “unknown”, only because the information we need to assess it is lacking. But here’s what I think:

It’s growing increasingly evident that Andrea Horwath will not be seeking a second term as mayor.

***

Horwath has repeatedly said she’s running for re-election. Last July, she said she would “absolutely” be running and, a year later, she told the Spec again that she intended to seek re-election. But she hasn’t spoken publicly about the election in months and has made no effort to mount a campaign.

There could be a few reasons for this.

First, we have to think about the money. One hundred million years ago, back when this newsletter was still the Sewer Socialists (I couldn’t hold on for like…a couple more months and then bask in the newfound attention on sewer socialism generated by Zohran Mamdani?), I did a deep dive into where campaign donation money came from in the 2022 municipal election.

Of all the mayoral candidates who submitted financial returns, Horwath raised the most from folks affiliated with the real estate, development, and construction industries. She was also able to pull in nearly 40% of her donations from people living outside of Hamilton. Horwath had just come off a provincial election campaign, still had labour contacts across Ontario, and capitalized on the fact that the Bratina campaign was dead-in-the-water, allowing her to play both the progressive and establishment cards.

That won’t work this time. She’s had four years as chief magistrate and they have…not gone well. She really only stepped up and into the role around year three and has been saddled with an incredible amount of baggage of her own making. Her time as mayor has been marked by controversy after misstep after alienating decision.

Add to that the fact that there’s less developer money to go around these days. The whole industry is in a self-inflicted slump and developers will likely be very strategic about who gets what little they are willing to distribute. Their logical choice is Rob Cooper, who has already scored the endorsement of the well-connected family that runs the union/developer LiUNA. He’ll get the big bucks, leaving Horwath with few other places to turn.

The second reason a Horwath re-election campaign is unlikely is that she must realize the writing is on the wall. Last October, polls had her noticeably behind Keanin Loomis, and, since then, the situation has only become worse. The other mayoral campaigns must be licking their lips at the prospect of her entering the race, given the material they’ve been given to work with.

The Barton-Tiffany Outdoor Shelter “fiasco”? Caused by a mayoral directive. Rising property taxes? Caused by the mayor’s-directed budget. The failure of the interim control by-law on data centres? Impacted by the mayor calling the last minute pro-AI meeting (granted, Cooper also opposed the by-law, but his campaign can spin that).

Even if those points are easily spin-able, that work hasn’t been done. The Barton-Tiffany project has provided meaningful housing to many and has, based on anecdotal comments from people in the community and online, reduced the “nuisance” crimes in the area that bothered residents the most. The budget needed major tax increases so the city could finally get around to projects that previous councils put off - projects that are getting done and will eventually improve the lives of residents across the city. And the data centre thing…well, that one is harder to spin. But almost everything can be given necessary context and framed in a way that highlights the positives. That work simply hasn’t been done by the mayor and her team. At every step, she’s handed control over the conversation to her opponents and failed to capitalize on any of the positives. She’s poured her energy into producing social media content only to be ruthlessly attacked by trolls who alternate between sexist comments and blaming her for every problem under the sun.

Contrast Horwath’s strategy with that of Toronto’s Olivia Chow. Chow has been everywhere, forging deals with the province and the feds, getting shovels in the ground on major projects, and doing so without alienating the progressive base that helped her get to where she is right now. Her approval ratings are about 50/50, but the most recent polls put Chow well ahead of right-wing opponents Bradford Bradford and Chris Alexander. Chow is a savvy enough political figure to create an opportunity where others would simply see a problem, adapting to the new political reality with ease.

Horwath, unfortunately, is playing catch-up, only now starting to change her political strategy and update her tactics. And, even with her new tactics, she’s still doing politics like it’s 2008. Staged photos at community potlucks? lol.

Once again, we can contrast Horwath and Chow. The right-wing astroturf group “Integrity TO” tried to attack Chow because she “sure loves to dance”, posting a video that transposed a blurry dancing Olivia over scenes of garbage and hypodermic needles in downtown Toronto. Chow’s office responded by leaning in, posting a video that opens with the quote “all she does is dance”, followed by a full minute of scrolling policy accomplishments over more clips of her dancing. Chow knows you have to relentlessly lean into the joy to counter the politics of division and you have to do so using modern tactics. Horwath’s team is too slow to get their messaging out, doesn’t take control of the narrative, and uses outdated tactics that do nothing to inspire the people she needs to win over the most.

And that, of course, brings us to the third point: who would be classified as an Andrea Horwath supporter right now?

She’s got her ride-or-die folks who will always be with her: old-school union and social justice activists, the contacts she’s built from her days as a councillor and MPP, and the people in the community who see her as a trusted, reliable, recognizable pair of steady hands on the wheel.

But it’s not the broad-based coalition she needs to win.

Progressives soured on Horwath early on, particularly when she showed a propensity to side with the conservative block on council regarding important votes. Her frequent conflicts with the few progressive councillors around the horseshoe and inability to advance any meaningful progressive policies pretty much solidified opposition to Horwath from the left. Now, progressives are lining up behind Scarlett Gillespie’s insurgent campaign and, in some cases, to Loomis’s broadly pragmatic one. That may begin to change though; his recent comments about “reversing” the Lake Avenue affordable housing development will absolutely push more fence-sitting voters to Gillespie - IMHO, it was a major misstep trading city-wide progressive support for a small sliver of NIMBY suburban support, which was always going to lean toward Cooper. Horwath might have been able to pitch herself as the electable progressive earlier this year, but the data centre meeting and vote was the final nail in that coffin.

As for liberals and moderates, they are firmly in Loomis’s camp. Centre-right-leaning voters will be split between Loomis and Cooper, depending on whether they put the emphasis on “centre” or on “right”. And conservatives will all be on Team Cooper, backing both the mayoral campaign and the number of Conservative Party-affiliated council candidates all running across the city.

There’s almost nothing left for Horwath. Very little money, very few supporters, a very long list of points in the “con” category. She has almost nowhere to go and she’s nearly out of the runway needed to mount any kind of halfway decent re-election bid.

I’ve been wrong before. Maybe Horwath has something cooking that we can’t yet smell. Maybe I’ll post this and she’ll register today. Maybe I should learn to keep my opinions to myself!

But I think it is far more likely that, shortly before the close of nominations, she’ll announce her retirement, and ride off into the sunset.

What that means for the other candidates in the race is absolutely an “unknown”.

Each of the three main contenders - Gillespie, Loomis, and Cooper - may see Horwath’s exit as an opportunity. Gillespie’s campaign can position itself as the true progressive option and go after the working folks who backed Horwath way back in the day. Loomis’s campaign will try to nab some of those progressives too, and he’ll be able to make the case that he’s the best positioned to stop Cooper and his ultra right-wing agenda.

As for the Ward 8 councillor, he’ll be able to claim he’s the last one in the race with the experience needed to jump into the job.

***

With or without Horwath in the race, all signs point to Cooper having the momentum. And the city needs to start preparing itself for the possibility that Mayor Rob Cooper will be sworn into office on November 15, 2026.

There’s a video that’s circulating widely on social media. It’s poorly edited, hard to hear, and does little to showcase anything even resembling charisma on the part of the candidate. But the message will undoubtedly resonate with disaffected property-owners and suburban residents who have, for years, been told that the city is woefully mismanaged.

In the video, Cooper, doing a half-passable Doug Ford impression, says “I ask people all the time ‘did your life get better’? I’m still lookin’ for that person who’s life got better.” I presume he meant to say something like “are you better off now than you were four years ago”, but whatever. He then lays out the grievances: an increase in homelessness, an increase in violent crime, a decline in the quality of our roads, a city that doesn’t provide financial statements (moving stuff), and a stalled housing market.

The progressive instinct is to “debunk” or challenge his claims with facts and logic like some kind of hyper-local John Oliver, especially regarding Cooper’s outlandish claims about crime. The instinct is to say that there were 29 cases of murder and attempted murder in Hamilton in 2021 before Horwath took office and were only 9 such cases last year. That there were nearly 3,000 fewer criminal code violations in the same time. That Hamilton is actually safer than the rest of Canada when it comes to violent crime and that much of Hamilton’s violent crime is targeted due to disputes between drug dealers and gangs with very little of that violence spilling over into the wider community.

But we don’t live in a world where that’s relevant. Facts don’t matter. It’s all about the vibes, folks. And Cooper is tapping into discontent with the enthusiasm of a habitant out at his cabane à sucre in mid Février.

J’m’en câlice, huhhhh!

Life is getting difficult for a lot of people. The cost of living is skyrocketing and wages aren’t keeping up. People are angry at everything because the system seems to be plodding along as though nothing is the matter. The powerlessness, the discontent, and the struggle is real. There is palpable anger at the institutions that are supposed to serve us because they are failing to respond with the necessary speed to alleviate the suffering of the general public. People who are seen as staunch defenders of the institutions and the status-quo - namely centrists and the moderately pro-business/pro-development/pro-stay-the-course crowd - may face a backlash for their positions.

I know it isn’t entirely the same, but take a look south of the border. In primary election after primary election, moderates are being swept aside as the MAGA wing of the Republicans and the progressive wing of the Democrats score win after win. People want something different and the candidates offering dramatic change - either a wicked embrace of the politics of division or a full-throated call to fundamentally change the system - are the ones coming out on top.

Cooper is giving voice to the grievances out there. He’s acknowledging that people perceive that crime is bad and is pledging to make them feel better about it. The fact that reality doesn’t jive with their feelings doesn’t matter. Neither does the fact that the response to this non-issue will be to spend more taxpayer money on the police (who do not prevent crime but, instead, respond to crimes that have already been committed which, as we’ve pointed out, isn’t happening as much) necessitating cuts to services elsewhere or further tax increases.

He’s telling people that their complaints about property taxes are valid, even if he’s spent a lifetime trying to get people elected to the parliament and the provincial legislature who have implemented policies that have starved the city and necessitated tax increases. He’s telling people that, yes, homelessness is an issue, but has no realistic plan on how to address it. He’s telling people that the roads are horrible while providing no plan on how to fix them without either slashing services elsewhere or raising property taxes.

But none of that matters! He’s saying what people want to hear.

If Horwath really is out of the race, then the field is mostly set. Major contenders know they need a lot of time to mount a mayoral bid, and, with just 80 days left, anyone short of a major celebrity wouldn’t have the time to make it work. So all I’m saying is, if the mayor decides not to run and anyone other than the Toronto Tempo’s Kia Nurse or Max Kerman of Arkells doesn’t walk into City Hall with $200 and a nomination package, the top three contenders for the role will be Gillespie on the progressive side, Cooper as the voice of the right and the disaffected, and Loomis in the middle.

Gillespie is tapping into the progressive frustration with the system, speaking to the high cost of living, the unaffordability of housing, and the seeming disconnect between our civic institutions and the concerns of the people those institutions are meant to represent, all with the lived experience that lends authenticity to her message. With a little more exposure to the public, a strong canvassing and get-out-the-vote strategy, and a compelling debate performance, she could be the progressive counterweight to Cooper’s right-wing populism.

The problem is, turnout in municipal contests is low and all the research indicates it’s homeowners who decide races. And if Cooper keeps bringing his message of ‘did your life get better’ to those folks - predominantly those in the suburbs, who tend to vote at higher rates than people in the city - he might be occupying the mayor’s chair in a few month’s time.

And then, with the support of just 5 other members of council (thanks to “strong mayor powers” allowing a mayor to govern with the backing of just 1/3 of council), he could implement whatever agenda he wants. For four long, long years.

Trust and counsel council

The mayoral election will obviously take up most of the attention in the city, but there will be 37 other races happening “down-ballot”.

Not that anyone would really know because, again, this election has featured some of the least enthusiasm I’ve ever seen from all possible corners. Almost no big announcements, few major shakeups, and excitement levels near 0. So, in this category, we have knowns, unknowns, and big ol’ shrugs from the general population

***

Of the current crop of 15 councillors, 12 are offering themselves up for re-election. Some, like Ward 2’s Cameron Kroetsch are running for re-election for the first time. Others, like Ward 6’s Tom Jackson, are running for the error - system lag - computing time excessive - do you wish to stop program? time.

I won’t talk too much about the council races, given my proximity to things, but I will say that some races are shaping up to be very interesting indeed.

Ward 9’s Brad Clark is one of the most recognizable Conservatives in the city, having served as a PC cabinet minister and run as a Conservative Party candidate in the past. But, this election, he’s facing a right-wing challenge in the form of Jonathan Stathakos, about whom I’ve written before. Stathakos is connected to the Muys/Kuruc Network and was part of MPP Donna Skelly’s re-election campaign team, giving him access to voters that traditionally backed Clark. But Stathakos isn’t the only one nipping at Clark’s heels; former justice of the peace and 2025 Ontario Liberal candidate in Hamilton Centre, Eileen Walker, is also registered. Walker’s website is more than a little heavy on AI, but she still seems the biggest centrist contender. Though, as I noted before, given how angry people in the community are, they may opt for Stathakos’s more radical positions than the comparatively moderate ones of Clark and Walker.

At present, Ward 8’s open seat is a straight two-way fight between the Muys/Kuruc Network-affiliated Jacob Tenbrinke and outgoing Ward 7 trustee Dawn Danko. Danko has the edge here, given that her husband - Liberal MP John-Paul Danko - was the councillor for the ward up until what seems like minutes ago. But the right-wing will definitely be aiming to hold the seat won and briefly occupied by Rob Cooper.

Ward 12 will be an interesting fight, considering former police board member and PC candidate in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas Fred Bennink has been running for the seat since even before nominations opened in May. After Councillor Craig Cassar sided with the anti-interim control by-law group on council, he earned a fair amount of flack from progressives, who may no longer show the same enthusiasm for his campaign they once did. Without their money and support, the race against Bennink may have just gotten a lot closer.

And I don’t know what’s happening in the valley town, but the election in Dundas has been way too subdued. The only candidates are right-wing populist Loren Lieberman (who is running on a “no new taxes, no new jobs at city hall, no running for other offices” pledge) and centre/centre-right candidate Rick Kunc. Incumbent councillor Alex Wilson made their intention to not seek another term known way back in May, but no other credible candidates have stepped up, despite having months to organize a campaign.

The only thing that might be even somewhat interesting is what happens in lower Stoney Creek over the next few weeks. Current Ward 5 Councillor Matt Francis is running unopposed at present, which is extremely strange. And, over in Ward 10, more candidates are popping up day by day, but few with the name recognition to really make an impact. So keep your eyes on things over there as we get closer to the close of nominations on August 21.

***

Things are even weirder over on the trustee side. Of the 11 trustee seats on the Hamilton-Wentworth District School Board, 5 candidates are currently running unopposed and 4 are in straight two-way battles. There are still no public trustee candidates for Ward 1 and Ward 13.

Side note: I check the “List of Candidates” page on the City’s website 2-to-20 times a day and always quickly click over to the “Ward 1 - English Public” tab. I feel weirdly protective of it for some reason. Maybe it’s because I ran for Wards 1 and 2 trustee back in 2014. Maybe it’s because that experience pushed me to get my PhD, specializing in local government. Maybe it’s because I’ve studied and published on school boards in the time since my disastrous bid for public office. I’m not entirely sure. I mean, not a single person in the community has suggested I put my name forward, but I still have a kind of…connection to that race. A spiritual bond, if you will. Anyway, if anyone knows of someone keen on running for Ward 1 HWDSB trustee, reach out and let me know. Happy to provide my thoughts and advice to anyone who steps up.

There are only two contested races over on the Hamilton-Wentworth Catholic District School Board side, with the other seven seats barreling toward acclamation (there are more Agostino’s in the election than contested Catholic trustee seats right now, meaning this might be the best round of elections for the city’s most prolific political dynasty - if you don’t count the Copps family). And both of the French-language trustees for Hamilton may now be acclaimed after incumbent French Public trustee Pierre Gregory withdrew from the election without explanation.

All this means that, at present, for 22 trustee seats across Hamilton, we are looking at six two-way contests, 12 acclamations, and 2 automatic vacancies. And here I was worried that the Ford government would abolish the office and “undermine democracy”. A lack of interest in the races is doing that perfectly fine all on its own, thank you very much!

***

As of tomorrow at 8:30 AM, there will be 10.625 business days for aspiring candidates to get their papers in order and join the race. A lot can happen in politics in 10.625 days. And while the pile of known unknowns and unknown unknowns grows, one this is for sure: when Hamiltonians go to the polls on October 26, 2026, they’ll be asked to decide how this city is governed for the next four years, and that decision will be a big one.

What the future holds is another “unknown”. But in this age of discontent and anger and powerlessness, we do still hold the power to select the most competent, capable, and compelling people to guide us through whatever comes next. There are a great many people who fit that bill already in the running. And, if there isn’t one that suits your fancy or meets your needs, now might be your chance to step up and be that person.

Because one thing is certainly in the “known known” category - this is still a democracy and we all still have a role to play. As a candidate, as a campaign worker, as a voter. We all know it. And we know what we need to do to get the government we deserve.

1  _{Nathan Bawaan. “Former Hamilton MPP Monique Taylor to run for NDP in Stoney Creek byelection” Hamilton Spectator, July 30, 2026 (Spec link - Paywalled).}

2  _{Spec archive links: May 7, 2007; October 26, 2010; July 23, 2011.}